Stock analysis. Technical analysis of securities and how to conduct it. Types of moving averages

Technical analysis is the analysis of price changes using charts in order to determine the direction of price movement in the future. TA is based on 3 sources of information: prices, trading volumes and time. Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis does not contain information about the reasons for price behavior. It already takes into account price movement in one direction or another and, based on certain identified patterns in the past, makes it possible to more likely identify the occurrence of certain events, namely a rise or fall in prices in the future. TA has both many supporters who make money in the market, and many opponents who claim that TA is a pseudoscience invented by lazy people who do not want to conduct a detailed study and analysis of financial assets.

History of origin

Technical analysis originated in Japan back in the 16th century. Its ancestor is considered to be Munehisa Homa, a representative of the oldest Japanese dynasty of merchants. At that time, rice was the main commodity traded on the stock exchange in Japan. Munehisa approached the issue of trade so carefully that he studied the entire dynamics of price changes over the past hundred years. As a result, he derived certain patterns of price behavior under certain conditions. Based on his research, he developed a trading system that brought him fabulous profits and helped him become the richest man in Japan in the shortest possible time. Having appreciated his merits, the emperor awarded him the title of samurai and appointed him as his personal financial advisor.

His method of trading and market analysis became widespread after he published a book in the 1760s, which laid the foundation for the Japanese candlestick method, which is successfully used not only in Japan, but throughout the world. In Europe, they learned about Japanese candles only at the end of the 19th century.

The founder of classical technical analysis in the West is considered to be Charles Dow, one of the founders of the popular ones, who at that time worked as the editor-in-chief of the Wall Street Jornal. In 1890, the magazine published a series of articles on the possible prediction of price behavior based on certain patterns. Dow described the principles on the basis of which it was possible to enter into a sale or purchase transaction with reduced risk.

It is noteworthy that the Dow theory became widely known only after his death.

The beginning of the heyday of technical analysis is considered to be the end of the 70s of the last century, with the advent of computer technology, when the analysis of charts and their construction became simpler.

If previously players using TA had to manually draw graphs and carry out calculations on a piece of paper, then the use of computer technology has simplified this work as much as possible. It was this simplicity of analysis that gave impetus to its development to the masses. As a result, almost any trader, having studied the basics of TA in just a few days, could be considered a technical specialist. analysis and put forward your hypotheses about further price behavior in the future.

Laws or postulates of technical analysis

Technical analysis is based on 3 main rules:

1. The market takes everything into account

The basis is the principle that all events (economic, political, psychological) are already taken into account in the price. It doesn’t matter for what reasons there is growth, the main thing is that these reasons push the price up and that means you need to take the side of the majority, and not go against the market.

2. History repeats itself

Based on ordinary psychology and mass behavior of people in certain situations. Knowing how people reacted in the past when a particular market model emerged, one can more likely assume that in the future in the same situation they will behave similarly.

3. Price movements are subject to trends

When the direction of price movement is in one direction, it is logical to go with it. When demand exceeds supply there is an upward trend (upward trend), otherwise there is a downward trend (downward trend). Based on this postulate, two consequences follow:

A trend, at each point, is more likely to continue than to change its direction to the opposite.
Trends are never endless and end sooner or later.

Therefore, one of the main tasks of TA is to determine the beginning and end of a trend.

What does technical analysis study?

At the heart of those The analysis contains several sections or tools, the study of which allows the trader to make assumptions about the future behavior of prices.

Types of graphs or method of displaying them. The most widely used are 3 types: linear, bars and Japanese candles
Basic concepts without which studying technical analysis makes no sense. This is the concept of trend, flat, support and resistance lines, channels, levels.
Patterns or models are typical combinations that are formed on the price chart. There are trend continuation models and reversal trend models.
Japanese candlesticks - based on a set of several candles, sometimes even just one, certain assumptions are formed about the further development of events.
Technical indicators and oscillators. They are formed as derivatives of price, time and trading volumes (both in aggregate and separately) and displayed in the form of graphs, which are either superimposed on the price chart or used separately as additional information.
Trading strategies using the above tools, allowing you to identify favorable situations for entering and exiting a transaction in order to increase profits.
Risk management system. And although this point is not included in the study of technical analysis, it is the most important. Properly selected money management can bring almost any trading system to profit, and vice versa, a lack of understanding of risk management kills even the most effective trading strategy.

Example of TA on the stock exchange

Over the past few years, Gazprom shares have been traded in the channel. The upper limit is 148-150 rubles, the lower limit is 125-130 rubles, which act as strong support and resistance levels. Of course, sometimes prices tried to break through the channel, but came back.

By buying at the lower price level and selling at the upper price, a trader could easily make money on these predictable movements. The width of the channel is, even if we take the minimum, 18-20 rubles. This is approximately 12-14%. Over the past year, it was possible to make about 5-6 such transactions, which would bring profits in the amount of 60-80% profitability.

Why is TA so popular among traders?

There are a number of reasons for this:

Quick learning. Unlike fundamental analysis, which requires a lot of time to study, mastering TA will only take a few days. The basics can generally be mastered in a few hours.
Quick results. Trades made based on fundamentals tend to be very long-term. A position can be held for several months, years and sometimes even decades. Using only the technical aspects of analysis, you can achieve visible results in just a few days or even hours. There are even special trading strategies designed to carry out multiple transactions within one day.
There is no need to thoroughly study the instrument being traded. It only takes a few minutes to analyze almost ANY chart to make an assumption about the further price movement.
TA is applicable and works on absolutely any timeframe: monthly, daily, hourly and even minute (by the way, the smaller the timeframe, the more various “market noise” it contains, so the effectiveness of analysis for short periods is reduced).
Massive use of automated trading algorithms or simply trading robots, which in most cases trade using knowledge from technical analysis.
Massive information almost everywhere about the possibility of beating the market many times over using technical analysis methods. Moreover, they are advised to make transactions as often as possible. What can I say to this? As they say: “Look for who benefits from it!” And it is beneficial for brokers and trading exchanges, who receive their small penny from each trader’s transaction. Therefore, the more transactions, the more profit. No “buy and hold” strategies. Only active trading. So the newcomers are led in, in the hope of getting rich quickly.

Why tech. analysis works

The effectiveness of technical analysis is explained quite simply. A huge number of traders around the world who use technical analysis in their trading see the same charts, models, figures, using the same indicators and oscillators. And as soon as a signal appears that the TA interprets as a buy signal, the majority begins to buy. As a result, the price starts to go up. If according to those analysis needs to sell, then many begin to sell, which pushes the price to the bottom. And the stronger the signal, the more players join the game.

There are several hundred (if not thousands) of different indicators in the world, on the basis of which one can make an assumption about the further movement of prices. And the more people use this or that indicator, the more effective it is. Therefore, over time, the number of traders spreads across these indicators, which ultimately reduces the effectiveness of everyone.

Therefore, the simplest (but powerful) models and only a few basic indicators that are used by most players in the market are considered the most effective. The explanation is also quite simple. Most traders only learn the basics. analysis, which is quite enough for them to trade.

Technical analysis is akin to statistics and public opinion polls. Its main purpose is to identify the mood of the crowd or the balance of power and take the side of the majority. When there is a buy position, when it is bearish - to sell. And as soon as the balance of power begins to change, exit the deal.

Maximum trading efficiency is achieved by combining two methods of analysis: technical and fundamental. With the fundamental method, stocks are selected that have a high growth potential and are currently, for one reason or another, undervalued by the market. Technically, you need to look for the right entry point into the transaction, using the maximum opportunity to buy these shares at an adequate price, at the moment they begin to grow.

Hello, dear readers of the blog site! This article will introduce you to technical analysis— the most effective tool for predicting price behavior.

You will learn why the vast majority of traders use technical analysis in stock trading. Technical analysis — a set of tools for predicting price changes based on historical data. For analysis, indicators, various graphical constructions on the chart and volume are used.

The basic postulate of technical analysis is: the price takes everything into account. All economic and macroeconomic events, market expectations and any other news are already included in the price. At first, it is difficult and uncomfortable for beginners to come to terms with this postulate, but it is so. That is why, in technical analysis, work is carried out exclusively with the price chart, without taking into account any fundamental and economic data.

The main emphasis when predicting the behavior of an asset in the future is on visual work with the price chart. This is connected with another postulate: history repeats itself.

Traders analyze the chart and look for repeating patterns that can be used to predict where the price will go next.

Depending on the tools and methods used, technical analysis can be divided into subgroups:

candlestick analysis;
figure analysis;
analysis using indicators;
wave analysis;
volume analysis.

All subgroups can act separately or complement each other. It is not uncommon to see traders using different analysis methods at the same time.

Candlestick analysis

It is called candlestick because the chart is depicted in the form of Japanese candles. This method was invented by Japanese rice traders in the 18th and 19th centuries. There are many candlestick patterns that can tell a trader about an upcoming market reversal or continuation of movement.

For example, there is this model:

Learn to trade. Go ahead.

Notice how, after non-stop growth, a black candle appears with a long upper shadow. This model warns the trader that the buyer’s strength is running out, and it’s time to take a closer look at sales. The market begins to fall and completely covers the previous growth.

Figure Analysis

They have very good predictive power for future price behavior. Using them you can find out quite accurately where the price will go, which is very important when closing a transaction.

Example of a descending triangle pattern:

Descending triangle figure

Positions when trading using technical analysis figures are opened after a breakout. We strongly recommend that you pay attention to the pattern analysis. With their help you can trade very successfully.

To identify shapes, you can use a program that will detect them automatically. This program is called . Install it and it will give you signals when there are good times to open a trade.

Price analysis using indicators

This analysis uses technical indicators that are available in every trading terminal. In the most famous trading platform, indicators are very conveniently divided into groups:

Groups of indicators in the MetaTrader trading terminal

The screenshot shows indicators from different groups. The role of a trend indicator is , the oscillator is , and volumes are also presented.

Beginners make a big mistake when they use too many indicators on the chart. This looks terrifying :)

Agree that it is very difficult to analyze a chart when, due to such an abundance of indicators, the price is not visible. This comes from uncertainty in trading. Most beginners think that the more indicators on the chart, the more accurately they can predict the price. This is wrong.

A large number of indicators significantly complicates visual analysis. All indicators contradict each other, and there is nothing left in the head but porridge. We recommend that you do not use too many indicators. One from each group is sufficient.

Wave analysis

A separate group are the so-called “wave traders” - traders who use the Elliott wave theory as the basis of their analysis. According to this theory, the market moves in cycles and has a certain wave structure that always repeats itself.

Elliott waves

The main difficulty of this type of analysis is that it is difficult for a trader to determine which wave the market is in at the moment. The theory of waves is quite complex and involves different interpretations.

Using volume analysis, traders try to determine the prices at which the volumes of large trading participants passed. There are different types of volume analysis, but the most popular is cluster analysis.

Volumes are collected into clusters according to certain configurable parameters. As you have already noticed, in this type of analysis, volumes are displayed not in the usual vertical form, but in a horizontal one.

Which analysis to choose is up to you, but we recommend studying everything and then deciding what is closer to you.

If you have questions, welcome to the comments :)

Good luck in trading!

Leading broker in the FOREX market -

To analyze stock prices, we will use the Dow Theory, in which it is necessary to study six basic postulates, with which most analysts are already familiar:

1. The price takes everything into account. According to the Dow Theory, any factor that can in one way or another affect supply or demand will invariably be reflected in the price. Regardless of the nature and causes of events, they are instantly taken into account by the market and are reflected in price dynamics.
2. There are three types of trends in the market. The Dow's definition of trend is as follows: In an uptrend, each subsequent peak and each subsequent decline is higher than the previous one. That is, an upward trend should take the form of a curve with successively increasing peaks and troughs. Accordingly, with a downward trend, each subsequent peak and decline will be lower than the previous one. This trend definition is still fundamental and serves as the starting point for trend analysis. Dow also identified three categories of trends: primary, secondary and minor. He attached the greatest importance to the primary, or basic. The main trend lasts several years and can be either bullish or bearish. Second-order movements last from several weeks to several months and can go in the opposite direction to the main trend. Third-order movements are oscillations with a period of several days.
3. The main trend has three phases. A market trend has three phases. Phase one, or accumulation phase, when the most far-sighted and informed market participants begin to buy first. The second phase occurs when investors using technical methods of following trends join the price increase. Prices are already rising rapidly, and the perception of this market is becoming increasingly optimistic. The trend then enters its third or final phase when the general public gets involved and a media-driven frenzy begins in the market. It is at this stage that those informed investors who bought during the first phase, when no one wanted to buy, begin to “distribute”, that is, to sell when everyone, on the contrary, is trying to buy.
4. Indexes must confirm each other. In the original, the Dow meant the industrial and railroad indices. In his opinion, any important signal for an increase or decrease in the exchange rate on the market must pass through the values of both indices. In other words, we can talk about the beginning of an upward trend only if the values of both indices have covered their previous intermediate peaks. If this happens with only one index, then it is too early to talk about an upward trend in the market rate. If the indices show different dynamics, this means that the previous trend is still in effect. Currently, this principle of the Dow theory is expressed in the need to confirm signs of a trend change with additional signals.
5. The trading volume should confirm the nature of the trend. Trading volume, according to Dow, is an extremely important factor in confirming signals received from price charts. If the underlying trend is up, volume increases in line with rising prices. Conversely, volume decreases when prices fall. If the main trend is downward, then everything happens exactly the opposite. In this case, a decrease in prices is accompanied by an increase in volume, and during intermediate price increases, the volume decreases. However, it must be noted again that volume is only a secondary indicator. Buy and sell signals, according to the Dow Theory, are based solely on closing prices. Volume indicators have one main goal - to determine in which direction volume is increasing. And then this information is compared with price dynamics.
6. A trend continues until it gives clear signals that it has changed. This position, in fact, underlies all analytical methods of trend following. It means that the trend that started the movement will tend to continue it. Of course, identifying trend reversal signals is not so easy. But analyzing support and resistance levels, price patterns, trend lines, moving averages - all of this, among other technical tools, will help you understand that there is a turning point in the dynamics of the existing trend. And with the help of oscillators, signals that a trend is losing strength can be received even earlier. The likelihood that an existing trend will continue is usually higher than the likelihood that it will change. By following this simple principle, you will be right more often than not.

So, what is the meaning of the words - technical market analysis?

Technical analysis- is considered a generally accepted method in studying the Forex market, aimed at predicting the movement of exchange rates, based on the fact that the market has a reproducible memory, since the future direction of the exchange rate is influenced by the identified patterns of market behavior in the past.

In technical, basic market analysis, a graph of price movement and the entire volume from past time to the present is taken for analysis, without taking into account any technical or market factors.

Application of technical analysis

In the modern financial world, technical analysis of the stock market, is a very effective and constantly used method, used by many directly in their trading. Since technical analysis consists of forecasting the development of the market situation in the future using analytical methods associated with price charts. In addition, historical indicators of the market price, as well as volumes and open currency interest of trading on the market are taken as the primary input data.

In other words, technical analysis of the stock market determines its future, the upcoming course of events (for example, the volume of transactions). The main factors for obtaining a trade indication are informational market indicators for the past.

Technical indicators and graphs of constant volatility of currency prices, for any time interval ahead of the conclusion of transactions, are the main tools of technical analysis in the market.

Thus, the use of technical analysis of the stock market becomes possible both for long-term strategic trading and short-term trading, concluding all transactions during the day.

Important tools of technical analysis in the market are indicators obtained as a result of mathematical calculations. They are based on historical price indicators of a currency. By analyzing them, an experienced trader has the opportunity to identify future market price movements and, based on this, make the right trading decision.

Digressing from the topic, I would like to note that, in fact, the dream of all traders - beginners, intermediate and professionals - is to have a trading system that will allow you to trade on the Forex market competently and make a profit. And it is not so important what methods the trader will use to predict price movement, whether it will be technical analysis or other strategies, the main thing we are all striving for is a positive result.

Earn a lot, a lot! After all, Forex is the fastest growing and most profitable business in the whole world, but also the most risky. Nowhere can you earn a hundred, a thousand or even ten thousand dollars in just 10 minutes. In the Forex market this is possible and most importantly it is legal!

Beginner mistakes in using technical analysis

History of the gradual development of technical analysis

Initially, when there was no modern computer technology yet, and no one tried to apply mathematical methods of analysis due to the sufficient complexity of the calculations, for a general analysis of price fluctuations, traders and analysts did everything manually. They used various slide rules, with the help of which they drew graphs with straight lines laid out.

A little later, technical features were calculated in the relationship between such lines and price charts. This is how models and figures appeared. After which the need arose to move away from the initial straightness of all trend lines and accompanying models, and analysts, still manually, calculated many average prices on charts, which were later successfully used in the technical analysis of the stock market.

And only with the advent of personal computers did it become possible to accurately calculate and use many methods. Currently, all calculations in technical analysis are performed on computers, which facilitates easy modernization of service tools for various types of market analysis.

Patterns of technical analysis

The currency market takes everything into account. That is, the price itself is a certain consequence and comprehensive reflection of all the guiding forces of the market.

History repeats itself. To understand the future, it is necessary to study the past. And this applies not only to technical analysis. It has already been proven that many configurations on price charts from the past appear on them in the future, moreover, this happens quite often.

More effective technical market analysis is also possible with. As mentioned earlier in the trend, built in the form of Japanese candles, you can see not only the price movements. These candles have hidden capabilities that many traders for some reason do not use in technical analysis of the stock market or generally do not know about these secrets... But this is a very important point and cannot be neglected.

Price movements are constantly subject to trends. The market atmosphere consists of periodically changing periods of rising and then falling prices.

The trend is divided into several types: bullish, in other words, rising, bearish, that is, falling, and sideways (also called neutral).

Also, ascending and descending continuation time is divided into 3 types:

1) Main or (also called primary), its peculiarity is that it lasts longer than all the others (up to 1 year).

In turn, the main trend is subdivided for 3 phases:

Origin. This phase, when a trend rises, is characteristic of the rise stage, used by experienced traders to open many positions when analyzing the Forex exchange.

Continuation of movement(trend takeoff). At this phase, the market takeoff is clearly visible. Here, all participants, as a rule, try to open profitable positions.

U-turn. This period usually warns of a decrease in market activity. Here the distribution of accumulated deposits occurs and many traders begin to close positions, locking in profits.

2) Middle or (also called secondary) 1 - 2 months pass, in some cases even more.

3) Minor, usually passes within a period of several days to several weeks.
It happens that the secondary trend corrects the change in the primary price trend by 30 or even 60%. In this regard, it is usually called a corrective trend.

Medium and small trends in varying quantities can be within the main (primary) trend.

4) Confirmation of the trend, shows its volume. Technically, this is characterized by the total amount of currency in circulation during 1 day on the market. A currency that has liquidity is of greater interest to traders and, accordingly, the trading volume for this currency will be greater than for others.

In technical analysis of the stock market, an experienced trader often looks at the trading volume of a particular currency, and its low volume serves as a stop signal calling for the closure of many positions. If a currency pair is traded and its volume is large enough, it represents open interest in the market.

Typically, information about open interest or volume is obtained from electronic media. These are well-known: Reuters, Bridge Information Systems, Bloomberg.

5) The presence of a trend ends with confirmation of its breakout line.

Technical analysis is a very powerful tool in predicting price movements, and its correct application always gives the expected result!

There are several types of prices in the commodity, capital and currency markets. All of them are published in periodical economic publications daily. These are prices of futures and auction transactions, spot and forward prices for real assets.

For a participant in entrepreneurial activity, it is important to know how prices are determined in exchange contracts, since the pricing system in the latter differs significantly from those used in forms of trade organization.

In order to become an exchange product, a product must meet the following conditions:

by quantity: the quantity of goods is determined in the agreement in natural units of measurement, the actual value of the sale of goods is called lots;

by quality: the quality of the goods in the agreement is determined by standard and technical conditions, terms of the contract, by preliminary inspection of the goods, as well as by samples. An outstanding factor in standardizing the quality of a commodity is the introduction of a base grade as a single measure. It is the criterion by which qualitative characteristics of similar products are given. The price of the base variety is taken to be the most common type of product of that character;

by liquidity: the product must be absolutely liquid, that is, it can be bought and sold at any time;

by mass: a product participating in exchange trading must be non-monopoly, that is, mass

Acceptance of goods and their placement are stipulated by the rules of exchange trading. Members of the exchange offer their goods after their direct inspection by brokers at enterprises or on the basis of samples or descriptions provided. The goods are entered into the accounting book and the broker's "pit" cards only in the case of a guaranteed quantity of goods in the warehouses of the exchange, about which a corresponding note is made, or in the warehouses of the seller. The Avila Exchange Trade Regulation also approves the list of goods that are quoted on the exchange.

The purchase and sale of goods on the exchange consists of an exchange transaction

. Exchange transaction- this is a written document for real goods with established delivery dates. An agreement is considered an exchange agreement if it is concluded between members of the exchange for goods admitted to circulation on the exchange provided, in accordance with the time period and procedure determined. Charter and Rules of exchange trading (an example of an exchange contract for a futures transaction is given in Appendix N).

Agreements registered on the exchange are not subject to notarization, but are approved by the general meeting of the exchange. The contents of the exchange transaction (except for the name of the product, quantity, price, place and strictly the execution) are not subject to disclosure. This information can be provided only at the request of the investigative authorities and the court. The agreement is considered concluded from the moment of its registration on the stock exchange. Only members of the exchange or brokerage have the right to carry out exchange operations.

For the type of exchange commodity, prices are determined depending on the ratio of supply and demand at the moment of exchange trading. The following concepts of price are used on the stock exchange: the price of the seller (supply), the price of the buyer (demand), the price of the exchange agreement, the quotation price.

. Seller's price for a commodity- the price indicated by a participant in exchange trading in a sales application (see Appendix M), as well as named by him during trading in order to stimulate sales

The buyer's price refers to the prices indicated by the buyer in applications (see Appendix N) for purchase, as well as those that he names directly during the auction, when discussing the seller's offer

The price of a stock exchange transaction is the final price of those that were named by the buyer (seller) and recorded by the stock broker

As noted earlier, the price of exchange transactions (exchange goods) is the price at which purchase and sale transactions of large quantities of material and raw materials, industrial and technical products, agricultural products, and consumer goods are carried out on commodity exchanges. This price is formed on the basis of the exchange quotation (supply and demand) and markups or discounts from it depending on the quality of the goods, the distance of the goods from the place of delivery, which are indicated in the exchange contract. The agreement at this price is concluded by the one who first accepted the offer. To complete the operation, three parameters must be fixed: price, amount and delivery time.

The price of exchange transactions is one of the types of free prices, which makes it possible to more fully identify the supply and demand for goods on the scale of the region, country and world market, both at the time of trading and in the future. In countries with market economies, stock exchange prices are regularly published in periodicals and the electronic information network.

Depending on the type of agreements concluded on a commodity exchange, two types of exchange prices are distinguished: prices for real goods and prices for futures, or forward transactions. In turn, prices for real goods are divided into prices for spot (“cash” transactions) and forward contracts.

The price for a spot contract is the price for an available standard product, which is delivered to a certified exchange at the expense of the seller within a week after the transaction is concluded. Payment for this contract must be made within two days after the conclusion of the agreement.

In the practice of foreign market economy, forward contracts occupy a certain place

. Forward contracts- these are contractual obligations of private individuals with over-the-counter turnover for the supply of goods in the future without any official guarantor

The price behind a forward contract is the price for delivery of the commodity at a future date (one, three, six or nine months from now). As with a spot contract, payment for goods must be made within two days after the transaction is concluded. The peculiarity of a forward transaction is the time difference between the conclusion of the transaction and the delivery of the goods to the buyer. Therefore, such transactions are also called agreements with deferred fasting. In the case of a forward transaction, the buyer advances the seller for goods of certain quality characteristics, which he must develop and deliver at a specified time. Thus, an agricultural commodity grower can sign a contract in the fall for the supply of grain of certain standards during the harvesting period at a pre-agreed price. Such a forward contract makes it possible to guarantee a favorable price for the buyer, and for the producer to replenish funds for the production process. In addition, the advantage of concluding such agreements is manifested in significant savings in storage costs. In the city of Iru, the formation and development of market relations in Ukraine, the volume of forward transactions will increase. In real commodity trading, forward transactions tend to dominate.

. Futures transactions are concluded between the buyer and seller for the purpose of insurance against a possible increase in prices on the real market. A product can be sold at different prices. System for determining prices in financial. Futures contracts differ significantly from those used in ordinary commercial transactions.

The price for a futures transaction is the price for a standard contract, which provides for the future delivery of certain volumes of a certain type of product of a certain quality characteristic. Futures transactions are standard standard contracts. The price of such a contract is determined at a public auction on exchange trading. Unlike transactions for real goods, futures transactions do not sell real goods, but only an agreement for their possible delivery in a future period. The conclusion of such agreements is carried out not for the purpose of buying or selling a real product, but for insurance against possible unfavorable price changes. Practice shows that the vast majority of futures transactions are fictitious, since only 2% of transactions result in the delivery of goods, and the rest - in payment of the difference in prices. According to a futures transaction, the difference between the price of the contract at the time of its conclusion and the real price prevailing in the market on the day the contract expires is paid by either the buyer or the seller. If during this period the price rises, the seller pays this amount. To do this, he enters into an offset, or counter (opposite) agreement, providing for the purchase of the same batch of goods at a new, now real price at the end of the futures transaction. The buyer also enters into an offset transaction to sell the same batch of goods at a new price and receives the difference. When the price decreases, the opposite happens. At the moment of concluding an offset transaction in futures, the agreement is liquidated and completed.

In order to insure against possible losses due to changes, when carrying out contracts for real goods, exchange transactions use hedging - a counter commercial transaction for the sale of goods of the appropriate quality at the appropriate price.

The price of the base grade determines forward transactions concluded for a pre-agreed quantity of goods, the supply agreement for which is an exchange document containing clearly defined responsibilities of the parties to the price. Such transactions are called warrants.

Price trends for goods are judged by prices in warrants

An order to buy or sell a commodity is sent directly to member brokers of the exchange on the trading floor by telephone or fax. A broker member of the exchange may come to the auction with a package of client orders. The customer can accompany his orders with various instructions: indicating the minimum or maximum price, the number of contracts for sale or purchase, instructions for replacing contracts, etc. At the time of speech, the time of receipt of this document by the broker in the “pit” is indicated. When concluding a transaction, the broker enters in a special form, the code number of your contract, when concluding a transaction, month of delivery, price, volume of goods. This data is immediately transmitted to those present in each “pit”, exchange observers and to the computer accounting system. Price information is displayed on a special display on the trading floor of the exchange, and is also transmitted to other exchanges and through exchange information services - to the media.

Exchange quotations are the outstanding prices of exchange transactions concluded for a standard quantity of a standardized product, provided for by the rules of exchange trading in the exchange “pit” during official hours. Both exchanges. Quoted price - the price determined by the quotation commission of the exchange by analyzing the prices of exchange agreements, sellers' prices, buyers' prices based on uniform criteria and special methods. There are official and non-official quotes.

Official quotations are carried out at the prices of exchange agreements for groups of products of standard quality determined by the exchange with a single delivery basis for each exchange commodity. The process of determining official. The market price quotation provides an objective assessment of price fluctuations during the exchange day.

According to the market of a certain day for a certain product with a large number of transactions, the quotation price is calculated as the average price of transactions

Market conditions are determined based on three characteristics:

The relationship between supply and demand;

The trend of price movements during the exchange day;

Number of completed transactions

Quotations outside the official (reference) are carried out on the basis of an analysis of prices (demand, supply, agreements) taking into account the quotation commission’s assessment of the supply and demand situation in three directions of the MKAM: at seller prices (quoted offer price), at buyer prices (quoted demand price), according to the typical price on the exchange for a specific period of time for a specific type (group) of goods (quoted exchange price.

The reference or quotation price is not the official or fixed price of the exchange, but only reflects the opinion of the quotation commission about the most typical price

A reference quote can be made based on the results of several exchange trades. These quotes cannot be appealed by members of the exchange and cannot be changed by decision of the exchange committee. Controversial issues arising during the bidding are considered by arbitration commissions.

The official quotation data is notified on the exchange the next day after the auction.

By decision of the quotation commission, the exchange has the right to set maximum levels of price fluctuations for goods that are officially quoted on the exchange, deviation from which provides grounds for termination of trading for a given product.

Of particular note among the exchanges actually operating in Ukraine is the agricultural exchange

. Agricultural Exchange is a type of commodity exchange. It employs the same participants and has the same functions as the commodity exchange. Trade agreements, the procedure for their conclusion and execution, trading techniques, and other issues of the organization and functioning of commodity and agricultural exchanges are largely the same.

Exchange trading in agricultural products as a specific and very important sector of the national economy is carried out in accordance with the rules of exchange trading approved by order of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of Ukraine and. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine No. 103/44/62 dated 3041996 rub. This is the main document that regulates the procedure for carrying out exchange transactions regarding trading in agricultural products, establishes trading rules for trading participants, officials and employees of the exchange, determines the content of exchange agreements and provides guarantees for their implementation. The rules are mandatory for all exchanges. In addition, exchanges can approve their rules only on the condition that they do not contradict the typical ones. Rules. The rules are developed based on. Law of Ukraine "On Commodity Exchange", other legislative acts.

For each type of agricultural product, prices are determined depending on the ratio of supply and demand at the moment of exchange trading. The agricultural exchange uses the same price concepts as the commodity exchange: seller (supply) price, buyer (demand) price, exchange agreement price, quotation price.

The price level for the purchase of agricultural products and food for state needs should be determined taking into account the weighted average prices based on the results of previous auctions

. Questions and tasks

1. What is the main purpose of the commodity exchange?

2. What is the importance of stock prices in the world economy?

3. What are the requirements for a commodity?

4. What types of exchange prices. Do you know?

5. Describe the procedure for concluding stock exchange transactions

6. What is the difference between official and official quotation?

7. What are the features of the activities of the agricultural exchange in Ukraine?