It’s no secret today that the population of Russia (Russians) is decreasing annually by an average of 1.2 million people! And although the last census showed an increase in population, this increase occurred due to the influx of people of other nationalities from the former union republics of the USSR. And this number of losses is growing all the time. What will happen to the Russians in, like, 100 years? We Russians simply may not remain in Russia. We can become extinct like mammoths, and those who remain, somewhere outside the borders of Russia, will be listed in the Red Book. A sad forecast, but someone really needs it to come true.
What is the reason for this extinction? There are several of them:
1. Acceptance of Christianity. a) Those who accepted it were freed from the obligation to continue the Family. And although in rural areas families remained large for a long time, the Spirit of the Family itself gradually eroded, and we see that, both in cities and in villages, families began to shrink. Today it has become fashionable to live “for oneself”, and for such a life children are a big hindrance. Therefore, you can see families with one child, much less often with two children, and very rarely with three or more. But that’s not the whole problem.
B) In Christian “temples” we were accustomed to wine, and then to vodka and moonshine. As a result of mass drunkenness, the nation began to degrade and degenerate. Back in Soviet times, there was information that entire regions lost up to 3-4 months of working days a year due to absenteeism due to drinking. The booze also had a deplorable effect on the Russian gene pool.
B) Mixing of blood and degeneration due to violations of the RITA Laws. After all, all Christians are “brothers and sisters in Christ,” which means there is no violation of the above-mentioned Laws. Brothers can marry sisters. “There is neither Greek nor Jew,” as a result of which the first became second, and the second became first. Both the first and second slogans had a detrimental effect on the quality of the Russian gene pool.
D) Christians are prohibited from reading non-church literature. In other words, a ban is imposed on Knowledge not related to Christianity. For centuries, ancient chronicles were destroyed different nations, or even entire libraries. Everything connected with the Slavs and Aryans was violently destroyed and continues to be destroyed. Not only the knowledge preserved by the Orthodox Old Believers, the guardians of our Primordial Faith of the First Ancestors, is especially cruelly destroyed, but also the Old Believers themselves. We already know this from modern history. To this day, books published by the Old Believers are subject to seizure. But where has it been seen that on the land of the Ancestors, their descendants had neither a place nor a place to live? How long will we endure these humiliations and bullying?
2. Destruction of royal power. Only the tsar was able to raise the army and people to liberate Russia from its hidden enemies. But the last tsar turned out to be weaker, more short-sighted than the false people - the Bolsheviks.
3. Destruction of the Russian nobility, as bearers of the Russian Spirit, as guardians of the Family and its laws. And the nobles themselves succumbed to the false propaganda of the Bolsheviks, who supposedly cared about the people. In fact, we were convinced of what the Bolshevik communists were worth.
4. Passion for atheism and Marxism-Leninism. Having lost the Roots, we never found a replacement for them in either one or the other. Believing in communism, we rushed headlong in pursuit of the mirage. What this led to, we see around us in Everyday life. We let ourselves be deceived and do not want to admit it to ourselves.
5. Taking people off the ground. A peasant who owns land is able to feed himself, which means he is less dependent on the state than workers. But the state, and more precisely the Those who are in power in it do not need free people, they need slaves who can be pushed around as anyone pleases. Moreover, those in power benefit from religion for slaves - Christianity. After all, everything is “from God”! Both joys and troubles. This means there is no one to complain about. Therefore, the Bolsheviks exterminated strong peasant kulaks. And in later years, simple peasants were prohibited from keeping more than one cow, one pig, more than a dozen chickens, etc., and were subject to exorbitant taxes. That is, people who know how to live “from the earth” were simply depersonalized, their importance was belittled, but the RA-Bochikh was elevated. Morally and physically destroying the village, they extolled the gathering of SLAVES - the city.
6. Destruction of the Cossacks. After all, the Cossacks kept the Laws of the Family until the last. Most of them secretly professed the Old Faith of the Ancestors, as bequeathed Prophetic Prince Svyatoslav Horobree - founder Cossack Troops, who gave them Kaz (Decree, Mandate, Order): all their lives to fight the penetration into Rus' not only of armed enemies, but also of foreign religions. This was a real force capable of resisting the power of “workers and peasants” - slaves and smerds. But the nobility was unable to organize this force, as a result of which the dictatorship of the proletariat, led by the enemies of the Russian people, flourished. And then the outright genocide of Russians “bloomed.”
7. Change in the truly Russian language - the introduction of the Cyrillic alphabet. Having lost native language, we have lost EVERYTHING! Now we began to be called “Ivans - those who do not remember kinship”! The language has changed, the fairy tales have changed, and we no longer understand each other. For example: a fairy tale about a turnip. My grandfather grew a turnip; he pulls and pulls, but he can’t pull it out. Then the grandfather called the grandmother, they pulled and pulled, but they couldn’t pull it out. Then they called their granddaughter...?! Where are the parents of this granddaughter? And they were simply thrown away as an unnecessary element. But this uselessness is implanted in the child’s subconscious, and this is where the connection between generations is broken. Who benefits from this? Those who intended to physically destroy the Russians as a nation.
8. Propaganda of sex. Soon girls will be embarrassed to marry “virgins”! But the RITA Laws say that a girl’s first man places in her the Images of the Spirit and Blood of his Family, which means that the souls of all her subsequent children, even from other men, will be incarnated from the Family of that first man. This means that most men do not have their own children (or do not know about them and do not live with them) and, most often, raise the children of someone else’s man, someone else’s Clan. It would be nice if this Genus belonged to the Slavs and Aryans. But often the first men become “representatives” of other nations. This explains the problem of “fathers and sons”! I repeat, not mothers, but fathers and children! This means that the connection with the Slavic-Aryan Family is even more severed. Subconsciously feeling this “non-kinship”, forced to take care of their “daily bread”, raised by women, men are moving away more and more from raising children. But only a man who has “X” and “Y” chromosomes, in other words, who controls male and female energies, is able to raise a more harmonious child. Only a man can combine a blacksmith and a tailor, a carpenter and a cook, a warrior and a nanny... This means that he can more correctly raise and train children in various professions and skills necessary for life.
But what do we see in our daily life? Children are raised at home by mothers, in kindergartens and schools by women. If the father is still present at home, then it’s not so bad; if the father is not there, then it’s already a problem. And it’s an even bigger problem when a child from an incomplete family, or even a complete one, falls into the hands of strangers - educators. After all, none of them are truly interested in raising other people's children. So, another reason is alien upbringing.
9. Education. The entire education system is aimed at educating slaves of the system, a system called the State. The false history of Russia and the whole world is being imposed on children. Insignificant “knowledge” in all subjects. “Science” that has reached a dead end (many scientists talk about this today). Well, if science is at a dead end, then where is the school?
All of the above, our attitude towards Nature, “educated”, including by school, has brought the environment to a critical state. The very existence of man on the planet is under threat. This means that we have no time for some Russians: after all, all life on the planet is in question. We are on the edge of an abyss, but we prefer not to notice it. We behave on Earth like temporary workers, like transit passengers.
Well, maybe not quite full list reasons why we are dying out.
IN AND. Kozlov
. RUSSIAN EXTINCTION: CRISIS OR DISASTER?
Viktor Ivanovich Kozlov - Doctor of Historical Sciences, chief researcher at the Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology named after. N.N. Miklouho-Maclay RAS.
Peoples, or ethnic groups, are so-called social organisms capable of self-reproduction, which is carried out through predominantly endogenous marriages and the transfer to a new generation of the language, culture, system of values and orientations inherent in a given ethnic group.
In the animal world, sustainable reproduction of a particular species, when the number of births constantly exceeds the number of deaths, serves as the best evidence of successful adaptation to the environment. A decrease in the population indicates either that it was exterminated by hostile species, or that it was unable to adapt to changed conditions. What has been said is fully true in relation to ethnic groups, however, they are also influenced by ethnic processes. Among them, assimilation plays a special role, that is, shifts in the ethnic self-awareness of groups of people who have adopted the language and culture of another ethnic group. For example, the reduction from 1959 to 1989 in the number of Mordovians in the Volga region (from 1285 thousand to 1154 thousand) and the simultaneous increase in the number of Chuvash (from 1470 thousand to 1842 thousand) is explained not by the fact that the first were struck by some kind of disease, but which the latter had immunity. It’s just that the Mordovians, thanks to the dispersion of their settlement, have long communicated more with Russians and gradually (mainly through mixed marriages) assimilated by them [ 1 ]
The decline in Russians for 1993 was within Russian Federation due to the excess, figuratively speaking, of the number of coffins over the number of cradles, it amounted to about 1 million people, in 1994 it exceeded the million mark and so far has no tendency to decrease. The actual extinction of the Russians is explained by a complex set of factors, and since most of them began to take shape in the past, an excursion into demographic history is necessary. Poor knowledge of the problems under consideration prompts me to expand the chronological framework and give some explanations.
The history of the peoples of the world is closely connected with the dynamics of their numbers. This connection was most clear in ancient times, when the power of a particular social organism was determined primarily by the number of men capable of wielding weapons. With the level of material production coming to the fore, the significance of the population did not so much decrease as transform, and began to manifest itself indirectly. And only the global development of international contacts, the widespread borrowing of scientific and technical achievements, and the emergence of economic and military alliances somewhat reduced this importance.
Unfortunately, researchers of the history of countries and peoples of the world, including Soviet and now Russian scientists, pay little attention to the quantitative characteristics of demographic processes. Even in respectable works devoted to Russian-French relations at the beginning of the 19th century. I was unable to find information that the number of French - the largest people in Europe at that time - and Russians was approximately equal (according to my calculations, 20 - 22 million people). But this circumstance largely explains the duration of the “large battalions” tactics successfully used by Napoleon, and the difficulties of defeating him in the Patriotic War of 1812.
In Moscow Rus' at the end of the 16th century, when its borders began to rapidly expand to the east, about 10 million people lived [ 2 ]. The most numerous ethnic group of the Volga region - the Tatars - numbered, according to my estimate, about 300 thousand, the Mordovians and the Chuvash - approximately 100 - 150 thousand each. Mass migrations of Russians to these regions at that time represented a process of economic development of vast sparsely populated and empty lands, not met with resistance from the indigenous people.
Attempts by current local nationalists to prove that the Russians, they say, seized lands that did not belong to them are without foundation.
According to the first general census of Russia in 1897, the number of people for whom the Russian language (“Great Russian dialect”) was their native language amounted to 55.7 million people; If we exclude groups (Ukrainians, Jews, etc.) who called Russian their native language, it turns out that the real number of Russians reached approximately 53 million people at the end of the last century. At that time it was the largest nation in the world, inferior (albeit significantly) to the Chinese and, in addition, to the residents of the United States - the “Americans”, but the latter - recent immigrants and recently freed blacks - had not yet united into a single nation.
Russians at that time were characterized by a high birth rate (about 50 per 1 thousand inhabitants), high mortality (about 30%o) and a fairly high natural increase - 20%o, which is almost twice as much as the similar average in Western Europe. At the beginning of the 20th century. the country's industry and agriculture were booming; Culture developed rapidly: it is not for nothing that this era in literature and art was called the “Silver Age”.
By 1914, the birth rate had fallen slightly (mainly due to an increase in the age of marriage), but the mortality rate had dropped even more, and therefore annual profits had increased compared to late XIX V. from 1.1 to 1.3 million people. About a third of the total population were children under 14 years of age, in other words, there was significant demographic potential.
As a result of this, losses in the First World War and the Civil War were quickly covered by the large number of children of the younger generation. According to the 1926 population census, which took into account not only the native language, but also ethnicity (“the nationality in the country there were 77.8 million Russians, of which in the Russian Federation - 72.6 million, or 77.9% of the inhabitants.
In the next decade and a half, the demographic development of Russians was greatly disrupted. Industrialization and essentially forced collectivization caused millions of people to migrate to cities and new industrial areas. This led to a severance of previous family and neighborly ties, to a change in the reproductive behavior of families, which was no longer determined by the traditions of large families. The preservation of this tradition was, in addition, hampered by housing difficulties (overcrowding of communal apartments and barracks), lack of help from older relatives, as well as the actively introduced attitude towards a woman as a “worker”, equal to a man in everything, and the belittlement of her role as a mother and housewife . The transition of city dwellers to a medium-sized family (three or four children) has become widespread, and a similar trend has become increasingly evident among rural married couples. Millions of losses from Stalin's repressions and the atmosphere of anxiety for the future that reigned in those years.
According to the 1939 census, the number of Russians was 99.7 million people, or 58.7% of all residents. After the annexation of the western territories to the USSR, the first figure exceeded 100 million, and the second decreased to 52.4%; in the RSFSR these figures were 90.3 million and 83.4%, respectively. However, such a relatively high increase both in the country as a whole and in the republic is explained by no less than a quarter by the fact that numerous groups of the Russian-speaking population with an unstable ethnic identity switched over to the “Russians.” For example, within the RSFSR, the number of Ukrainians decreased from 7.9 million to 3.3 million people, although after 1926 their influx continued. Some authors believe that the reason for this was a change in the wording of the question in the census forms from “nationality” to “nationality” [ 3 ].
The Great Patriotic War dealt a severe blow to the peoples of the USSR. The Russians lost about 20 million, not counting the colossal indirect losses associated with the breakdown of marital relations [ 4 ]. In the entire population of the country, the losses were approximately twice as large, which forced I. Stalin, and after him Khrushchev, to postpone the next census until the end of the 50s, that is, until the situation improved due to post-war natural increase. However, demographic processes did not return to normal for a long time due to the extended demobilization of the army, a huge loss of men, a slowly recovering economy, ongoing mass repressions and other reasons. It is noteworthy that in rural areas the birth rate and natural increase rates until the end of the 40s were lower than in cities. In 1950, the USSR had 178.5 million inhabitants - 12 million less than in 1939; The population decline in the RSFSR was about 7 million people.
The demographic situation improved noticeably only by the mid-50s, when the birth rate reached 25.7%, mortality - 8.4%, natural increase - 17.3%, which meant 1.9 million people arrived annually. According to the 1959 census, total number the population of the USSR was 208.8 million, that is, it increased in comparison with 1939 (within the new borders of the country) by 8.5%; the number of Russians amounted to 114.1 million, an increase of 13.5%. In the RSFSR, the population increased to 117.5 million (by 8.5%), the number of Russians increased to 97.9 million (by 8.4%). Part of the increase in Russians, as before, was due to ethnic assimilation, the development of which can to some extent be judged by linguistic assimilation: by 1959, there were 10.2 million Russian speakers in the country, of which 4.7 million were in the Russian Federation.
Nevertheless, due to violations in the gender and age structure of the population during the war, even almost 15 years after its end, there were 20.1 million more women in the country than men; a significant proportion of them were widowed during their childbearing years or never married. And although the government officially recognized the status of “single mothers” and provided them with small benefits for children, this could not, of course, compensate for the decrease in the birth rate caused by the breakdown of marital ties and the reduction in the war and subsequent years. The small number of birth cohorts during the war years (the birth rate in 1943 - 1944 fell to 11.0 - 11.5% [ 6 ]) led to a decrease in marriage rates in the late 50s and early 60s, when these cohorts entered reproductive age. However, in general, the so-called demographic echo of the war did not manifest itself quite clearly and did not greatly influence the course of demographic processes in the post-war decades.
Well-established statistical accounting of the natural and mechanical movement of the population, as well as materials from regularly conducted censuses (1970, 1979 and 1989) make it possible to thoroughly analyze demographic processes [ 7 ]. Until the mid-80s, on the territory of the RSFSR, the birth rate gradually decreased, then increased slightly, mortality increased steadily, and natural increase decreased to 5.2c, which amounted to 740 thousand per year. Demographic processes in Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania were of a similar nature; in Latvia and Estonia, due to slightly higher mortality, the natural increase was less; in Moldova, Georgia and Armenia, thanks to higher birth rates, more. The demographic situation in Central Asia, where a decrease in previously high mortality occurred while maintaining a high birth rate, supported by the Islamic traditions of large families: in Tajikistan, the birth rate by the mid-80s approached 40%, mortality was 7.0%, which ensured a doubling of the population with a natural increase of 33%. population every 20 years. In the literature, this phenomenon is called the “demographic explosion.”
Birth rates for Russians were lower than for the country as a whole and for individual republics (except for Latvia and Estonia), that is, lower than for the “titular” ethnic groups. This is largely explained by the greater number of Russians. The share of those who lived in the cities of the RSFSR increased from 1926 to 1959 from 20% to 55%, by 1989 to 79%, while for the rest of the nationalities of the federation for the entire period - from 12% up to 61%. In other union republics, especially the southern ones, the corresponding figures are even higher: the share of urban residents among Russians in Turkmenistan in 1989 was 97%, in Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan - about 95%.
However, the demographic situation in Russian villages was no better. The continuous outflow of young people who did not want to put up with hard and dirty work, the arbitrariness of local authorities and poor cultural services led to the fact that villages in many originally Russian regions were depopulated.
A slight increase in mortality is explained mainly by changes in the age structure of the population - a gradual reduction in the proportion of young people and an increase in the proportion of elderly and old people. It is noteworthy that in relatively prosperous Latvia and Estonia this figure was higher than in the Russian Federation, and in Central Asia it was lower. At the same time, the mortality rate in Russia was increasingly influenced by factors caused by the spread of alcoholism and related domestic and industrial injuries. The environment deteriorated, which became polluted with chemicals and, with the development of nuclear energy, radioactive substances, which, like alcoholism, led to an increase in the birth of mentally and physically handicapped children.
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The number of Russians continued to increase until 1989, however, as the pace of this process slowed down, their share in both the RSFSR and the USSR began to decline. In 1989, 145.2 million Russians (50.6% of the population) lived in the Soviet Union, of which 119.9 million (81.6%) lived in the Russian Federation. It should be taken into account that this included millions of children from mixed marriages of Russians with representatives of other nationalities, who, not being able to reflect their marginal status, as was done, for example, in Yugoslavia, for the most part called themselves “Russians”. According to the 1981 census of Yugoslavia, 1,250 thousand people classified themselves as “undetermined” Yugoslavs” [ 8 ]. Based on data on the natural increase of Russians in the RSFSR for 1979 and 1989. [ 9 ], we can come to the conclusion that it amounted to about 3.8 million people, with an increase in the total number of “Russians” by 6.2 million. Thus, 2.4 million identified themselves as “Russians”. In total, according to my calculations, the increase in Russians, thanks to semi-assimilated and almost completely Russified groups, reached on the territory of the country over the years Soviet power(mainly in the RSFSR) 15-20 million people. The size of the Russian-speaking population in 1989 was 18.7 million, of which 7.5 million were in the RSFSR. All this, undoubtedly, contributed to strengthening the position of the Russian language and Russian-speaking all-Soviet culture, but had a rather negative rather than a positive impact on the ethnic existence of Russians, their ethnic identity. By the mid-70s, the massive transition of married couples to children) in the presence of a significant number of childless families, as well as people who did not marry, meant that population growth would inevitably stop with the change of generations, when cohorts born during the period and strongly thinned out during the war years, their few descendants will come. In most of the original Russian regions - from Novgorod to Tambov - this process has begun, and there has already been a decrease in the absolute number of residents. Meanwhile, the ongoing demographic policy did not prevent depopulation. It was aimed mainly at encouraging mothers of many children, with the lion's share of the allocated funds going to the southern republics. Unfortunately, the majority of Russian demographers at that time adhered to the attitude that they should not worry their superiors with pessimistic forecasts and additional worries. The concept has become widespread according to which the decline among Russians and some other ethnic groups is a consequence of a demographic “revolution” associated with the emancipation of women from household chores, the expansion of the range of interests and other seemingly progressive processes, the development of which should not be hindered [ 9 ]. To comments that such a “revolution” (more precisely, a counter-revolution) could lead to depopulation, the answer usually followed: this does not threaten the Soviet people, because the reduction in the number of Russians and some other ethnic groups will be compensated by the increase in the number of Central Asians and those similar in demographic behavior southern peoples professing Islam.
Natural movement of the population of the Russian Federation for 1985 - 1994. (thousand people). A significant deterioration in the demographic situation in the Russian Federation has been observed since the mid-80s, when, after a short-term increase, natural population growth began to steadily decrease. After 1991, it gave way to an ever-increasing decline, which was caused by a fall in the birth rate and the rate of increase in mortality that accelerated from that year. Since 1993, mass extinction of Russians began, mainly in the Russian way, the total number of which decreased by 805 thousand people as a result of the excess of mortality over the birth rate. The influx of refugees from the former Soviet republics only partially compensated for this decline, which increased in 1994, and the end of this tragic process is not yet in sight (see table and graph). As evidenced by the table data on the natural movement of various categories, Russians have a natural increase rate that is 4 times less than that of other residents of the federation. The main reason is the low birth rate, the level of which already in 1989 began to approach the indicators of the terrible war years. And if in the Tver region the natural increase gave way to a decrease, then in Dagestan, where there are few Russians, the population growth rate is high. In general, the number of other peoples of Russia continued to increase after 1991, when the mass extinction of Russians began. The given figures for the loss of all Russians for 1993 and 1994 are: were obtained by adding the slightly decreased increase in non-Russian nationalities (according to my estimates, about 200 thousand people per year) with the loss of Russians, which amounted to about 1 million in 1993, and more than 1 million people the following year. It's not hard to understand that main reason mass extinction of Russians is a sharp deterioration in living conditions as a result of unsuccessful, to put it mildly, reforms started by Gorbachev and continued by Boris Yeltsin’s “team”. Only for 1992 - 1994. industrial and agricultural production was halved, the price of bread, which had remained relatively stable for decades, increased by more than 5 thousand times; Prices for other essential goods also jumped just as sharply. At the same time the average size wages and pensions increased only about 500 times. Almost a third of citizens (including children) have incomes below the official subsistence level. Natural population movement in the Russian Federation
Note: Some discrepancies with the original figures are caused by rounding to the nearest 0.1 thousand. The decline in the birth rate over the past decade is largely explained by the acute contradiction between the long-awaited and promised improvement in life and its real deterioration, in which raising children turned out to be a very heavy burden. Young spouses, as before, usually do not refuse to have one child, but the time of its birth is pushed back to a later date, and the decision to have a second child, as a rule, faces difficult problems to overcome. In the foreseeable future, with the stabilization of current living conditions, the birth rate among Russians, which increased slightly in 1994, will probably remain at a level of less than 0%. Behind this is the almost universal prospect of reducing the number of Russians by half with the next change of generations, that is, in 40 - 50 years. The increase in mortality, especially after 1991, is due to a number of factors: the collapse of the previous, by no means perfect, but still quite effective and accessible healthcare system, the excessive rise in prices of medicines, deteriorating nutrition, etc. As a result, seemingly almost completely defeated infectious diseases such as diphtheria, dysentery, tuberculosis, syphilis, cholera, etc. spread. The increase in mortality was greatly facilitated by destructive processes in the spiritual sphere. Psychological stress and decreased vitality have led to an increase in alcoholism. By the end of 1993, the number of registered alcoholics had increased to 2.5 million; the number of deaths from alcohol poisoning increased by 80%. Drug addiction is growing even faster. Increasingly, people began to look for a way out in suicide. In 1993 alone, the number of suicides was 56 thousand - almost 4 times more than our military losses over 10 years in Afghanistan. Among those who decided to take their own lives, there are many elderly people whom economic reforms have brought down to the brink of poverty, and the transition from socialism to capitalism has deprived them of their former spiritual basis for existence. Human life itself has become devalued, as evidenced by about 40 thousand murders registered in 1993. The number of deaths from various injuries and accidents, which exceeded the mortality rate from cancer in 1993 and was slightly inferior only to the mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases [ 10 , 11 ] In terms of average life expectancy (59 years for men) and infant mortality (about 25c), Russia is significantly inferior to the economically developed countries of the world. To this should be added the deterioration in the “quality” of Russians. Currently, less than 30% of children are discharged from maternity hospitals healthy, and according to forecasts, their share by 2015 may decrease to 15 - 20%. Already in primary school 40 - 45% of schoolchildren suffer from one or another psychoneurological diseases [ 12 ] The gene pool is deteriorating, and the extinction of the Russian ethnic group is accompanied by its physical degeneration. The situation is aggravated by the spiritual corruption of young people, who are heavily influenced by Western (mainly American) propaganda of the cult of profit, sex and violence. Five years ago, the American demographer-economist M. Bernshtam (who was then one of B. Yeltsin’s advisers) published an article under the eloquent title “How long to live for the Russian people” [ 13 ]. However, most Russian experts have ignored it: they either remain complacent and ignore the threat of Russian extinction, or consider this threat to be temporary and easily eliminated. Take, for example, two brochures published at the end of 1993 containing reports addressed to government bodies. One, prepared by the Center for Demography and Human Ecology under the leadership of A. Vishnevsky, states that regarding fertility “Taking into account even the most recent years, no particular downward trend can be traced” [14 ], in another, prepared by the demography department of the State Statistics Committee of Russia under the leadership of A. Volkov, the decrease in fertility and increase in mortality recorded by statistics are considered temporary and it is stated that "in the foreseeable future, the population of Russia will not undergo significant changes" [15 ]. Compassion is clearly evident in the article by N. Rimashevskaya, director of the Institute of Socio-Economic Problems of Population of the Russian Academy of Sciences. From her point of view, the current decline in the birth rate is due to the demographic echo of the war of 1941-1945, and, therefore, in a few years the birth rate, they say, will increase by itself [ 16 ]. Despite all his professionalism, he did not focus on the decrease in the number of Russians, and above all the extinction of Russians, A. Kvasha [ 17 ]. Upholding pseudoscientific nonsense contrary to facts and to the detriment of Russian society- one of the manifestations pathologies of thinking, which included a significant part of our intelligentsia with high scientific degrees. As for those who are not stupefied by opium and unfounded optimism, for them the gloomy prospect of demographic processes is obvious. In the next 15-20 years, a significant increase in the number of births and a decrease in the number of deaths with a reduction in population decline is not expected. It is more reasonable to expect the opposite, since the country continues to sink into the economic quagmire and, having reached its bottom, may find itself faced with irreversible changes, including in the field of demographic development. (emphasis added - V.V. ) |
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There is an opinion that the extinction of Russians is largely compensated by the influx of migrants into the Russian Federation from new countries. Indeed, discrimination forces them to seek a solution in resettlement - flight to their historical homeland. In 1993, the number of arrivals in the Russian Federation was over 500 thousand people, in 1994 - almost 670 thousand, and about two thirds of them were Russians. And although during the same period 110 - 115 thousand people emigrated to non-CIS countries annually, the migration balance partially compensated for the demographic decline of the population [ 17 , 18 ]. It should be taken into account, however, that Russia is not ready for a significant influx of migrants (especially people with predominantly urban professions) in conditions of a severe economic crisis and rising unemployment. The instability of Russian refugee migrants prevents their active participation in natural reproduction, and therefore they can only temporarily mitigate the decline of the Russian ethnic group.
There are many myths regarding the demographic situation in Russia that are actively spreading. Many, let’s say, overly trusting or distrustful people live by these fabrications and fabrications. Let's look at the main ones, since everything else is just variations of the following.
1. The authorities are all lying and Russia is dying out.
2. Russians are dying out at an alarming rate, and they are being replaced by Caucasians, Asians, and Chinese.
3. Numerous studies and tests confirm extinction.
Before moving on to assessing demographics as a whole, we need to determine what data we can rely on. The very posing of the question about the lies and non-lies of the authorities is inappropriate and incorrect. Not a single official, including Putin, can independently determine the numbers and voice them; all official data are taken only from Rosstat figures. So you can lie only in one case, if Rosstat indicated one number, and the official announced another. How much can we trust this statistical tool? Among the so-called “oppositionists” the opinion is unequivocal - you cannot trust it, because “this is a government agency, they give out figures according to orders from above. But much more honest research by independent organizations produces completely different data”... I actually don’t understand why an organization fully funded by some “American Endowment for Democracy” is “independent” and can one trust, for example, road signs that are put up by another government agency, oh well.
Let's look at how informal, “unbiased” research is conducted. Some Caucasian region with a high birth rate is taken and compared with a depressed region from the European part of Russia. Voila, there is “the extinction of Russians and their replacement by Caucasians”! It is often noted: “and this is according to data from the same Rosstat,” which becomes completely incomprehensible. The “independent researcher” bases his conclusions on the data of the “false organization” in order to prove his “truthful calculations.” That is, in this and this region we trust Rosstat and rely on its figures, but in general it is “thoroughly deceitful and pro-government”... It is possible to conduct an “objective investigation on the spot.” We arrive at a certain maternity hospital, take a month’s extract and joyfully write: “data from maternity hospital “X” categorically does not coincide with official figures for the region for the past year and so on everywhere”! Firstly, it is not clear why data from one maternity hospital, for one month, should coincide tick by tick with the average data for the region for the year. And secondly, it is even more unclear why “it’s like this everywhere” if the “independent researcher” didn’t check anywhere else, and if he checked, it doesn’t show different numbers. Yes, because all these “checks” are designed for people who are not burdened by the desire to think or who are richly gifted with a “thirst for freedom” and cliches of “anti-government”... Not a single “research” can compare with the scale and accuracy of data from EVERY maternity hospital, EVERY registry office, EVERY hospital ! “There are lies, there are blatant lies, and then there are statistics”...
Now let's take a look at the state tool for these statistics. The main problem with myths, in my opinion, lies in lack of awareness Russians, and other peoples in the post-Soviet space. We are not talking about a mass of diverse information from many industries, but about where and how to look for this information, how and why certain structures and organizations work. It is necessary, as in the West, to include school curriculum teaching the basics of politics, economics and government structure. Don’t just write down in a notebook that there is a Central Bank, Investigative committee and Parliament, but to explain to schoolchildren the principles of their work and the functioning of the entire state system. So that an 18-year-old citizen already has a clear idea of what the economy is like in his country, where to write a complaint or request, which organization or institution to go to for this or that, who is more profitable for him to vote for, finally... So that he doesn’t scour the Internet for days, absorbing tons of propaganda and verbiage, but immediately went to the primary sources and not only received information, but also clearly saw numerous frauds and outright lies of both the opposition and the party in power, knew how to use the tools for obtaining information! But this is lyrics, let’s return directly to Rosstat.
Many people are unaware that Rosstat data is verifiable because it is not anonymized. You can “go down” from the country’s figures to a specific region, region, city, district, maternity hospital... That is, reach a specific initial figure. Out of curiosity, many people do this, checking certain data that is interesting to them personally. No one has yet cited facts of “lies”. These are not opinion polls or expert assessments. The registry office filed how many people died, how many people were born, the maternity hospital recorded so many... All data is confirmed by death or birth certificate documents and is entered into numerous registers and data banks. This is called a citizen registration system, and even if at some stage a person makes a mistake, this mistake is subsequently corrected by the system. To “lie to the Russians”, you need to falsify an incredible number of documents, and not just “write the necessary numbers”! Moreover, these documents are mutually requested by pension funds, military registration and enlistment offices, passport offices, prosecutor's offices, tax and many other government agencies. Any manipulations with the numbers would come to light instantly, throwing the functioning of the state system into a shock stupor. Not to mention " human factor”, when posts like: “I was ordered to increase the birth rate on paper” would be massively posted on the Internet, easily verifiable facts... I repeat, all this nonsense is designed for certain categories of people and it is not difficult to refute it. Therefore, Rosstat data is not only reliable, they are the only objective figures that do not depend on anything other than their direct sources. Now let’s take a look at these figures for the “extinction of Russia.”
In 1993, the maximum population of Russia was 148,561,694 people, after which a crisis began. The population decreased by 2009 to 141,903,979 people and has been increasing since then, currently amounting to 146,267,288 people (along with approximately 2.3 million Crimeans). However, not only these indicators make it possible to assess the demographic situation in the country. Let's look at natural growth:
As we can see, the decline in the birth rate occurred much earlier than 1993, and the increase even before 2009... You can see that the peak of the birth rate occurred in the late 40s. The overall population growth was due to a significant increase in life expectancy.
That is, by the time of the collapse of the USSR, a huge number of the population was of pre-retirement age. It was for them that it was most difficult to find work in the “dashing 90s” and they turned out to be the most vulnerable category of the population, still quite capable of working, but completely unclaimed... The high mortality rate in the early 2000s is explained by the fact that this significant part of the population died, barely reaching ( and sometimes not) to the average life expectancy, which in 2001 was less than 60 years for men. According to various sources ( different techniques ratings), including international organizations, the average life expectancy in Russia has been continuously increasing since 2004 (a jump in 2006) and today ranges from 66.5 to 67.9 years. Just a catastrophic drop in level preventive treatment elderly citizens and unprecedented stress after the collapse of the USSR led to a huge increase in the cause of death such as cardiovascular diseases (their share increased to more than 60%). And it cannot be said that this problem has been successfully solved today. The mortality rate from external reasons(14%) - poisoning, crime, accidents, fires, natural disasters etc.. All this exists and it is stupid to deny it, we need to somehow fight it, which is what the authorities are doing. By the way, Gorbachev’s much-unloved “prohibition law” and the current restrictions on the sale of alcohol and cigarettes have allowed the level of life expectancy to rise...
The increase in the standard of living of the population, compared to the “Yeltsin times,” affected the birth rate. Various state social projects gave young people confidence in the future and the opportunity to arrange their lives. Various forms of lending were able to provide housing for a significant part of the population, which made it possible to “have extra children”, which previously would have been trivial “not possible”... Let’s now look at the birth rate by region and the overall one for the country:
Although the data is for 2012, since then they have changed little towards improvement, and data for Crimea does not yet exist. It seems to be true that in the Caucasian and Central Asian regions the birth rate is traditionally higher, but let's compare the numbers, and not just the percentage of growth! The number of Russians born is disproportionately greater. Due to this, as well as the assimilation of some people of other nationalities (especially in the European part of Russia), the share of the Russian population does not decrease, consistently amounting to about 80%. For example, the influx of migrants, despite any “shocking” figures, cannot in any way replace the birth rate and the total number of Russians in statistics, since they are counted like other nationalities and have nothing to do with the figure of the Russian population (not to be confused with the Russian one). It is the Russians, due to their huge numbers and share among Russian citizens, who determine the demographic situation in the country, and not nationalities of several thousand people... Which does not in any way detract from the role of these nationalities and peoples in the life of a multinational state.
From all of the above, we can conclude: manipulations with individual data cannot give an overall picture and are only a means of fooling people who are too lazy (or “don’t need”) to search for objective information on their own, who prefer “ready-made conclusions” from various kinds of “experts.” In Russia there are a lot of not at all far-fetched problems, but very real and very serious ones, but “liberal and democratic researchers” prefer not to notice them or touch upon them only in passing, selectively. Because otherwise they will have to admit that the slogan “Russia is dying out, but the government is doing nothing” is not true...
The doctors medical sciences Gundarov about the reasons for the increased mortality of Crimeans after joining the Russian Federation in 2014.
The joy of Russians over reunification with Crimea was large-scale and sincere. Three years later, jubilation gives way to anxiety over sharp deterioration on the peninsula demographic situation. For the fourth year, Crimeans have been under the influence of an increasing increase in mortality, the cause of which has not yet become the subject of scientific analysis. A similar thing happened to Russia in the 1990-2000s, when population extinction was also ignored for a long time. This led to excess mortality, claiming the lives of more than 13 million compatriots.
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May 26th, 2013
In Russia, it’s like in war: you leave home and don’t know whether you’ll come back. Our Constitution is written with a pitchfork across water, and of all the civil rights, only one functions properly - the right to die. Premature and ridiculous.
It is the West that is rotting from oncology and Alzheimer's; in Russia, forever young, forever drunk, the hippie slogan triumphs: “Live fast, die early!”
The country ranks 175th in the world in terms of the level of physical safety of citizens. Behind this dry formulation are people at a bus stop, smeared on the asphalt by a drunken reckless driver, patients stabbed to death on the operating table like a Christmas turkey, killed by ice falling from the roof, knocked down at pedestrian crossings, poisoned by burnt vodka, those who went out into the street - and as if he had disappeared into thin air, the victims of bandits, whom even the police are afraid of, and the victims of the police, who are sometimes difficult to distinguish from the bandits.
Add to this inedible foods, fake medicines, expired baby food, contaminated water, crumbling like House of cards, emergency housing, disbanded hospitals, “dead” roads, drug addicts who will kill their own mother for a dose - not to mention a random person they meet - and what happens is not a country, but a hospice. But there is neither brotherhood nor sympathy between the doomed. Someone else's death arouses in them, at best, animal curiosity. But more often you can hear: “It’s my own fault!”, behind which hides the eternal “I’m not my brother’s keeper!”
The reforms that turned healthcare into a burial place have also reached psychiatry. According to internal instructions, patients are kept in mental hospitals for no more than three weeks, and the doctor is fined for returning to the hospital earlier than three months. So the expression “madhouse,” which is applied to Russia in a figurative sense, will soon be able to be used literally. The country, which leads the world in the number of mentally ill people, will be filled with untreated schizophrenics and paranoids, dangerous madmen to others, who were discharged out of fear of their superiors.
Those who adopted new laws do not face the threat of becoming a victim of a madman with a razor in his hand; they have security and a motorcade. And the rest are to blame themselves.
The girl came to the police with a statement against her stalker: the guy was following her around, showing off a knife that he always carried in his pocket. Despite the fact that he was registered with the PND and was clearly not himself, the doctors and police threw up their hands: “He didn’t violate anything...” And after a while the guy went to jail: for cutting another girl with a knife who happened to come across on his way.
Who is to blame when no one is to blame?
“I think with horror what kind of old age awaits me in our country,” a friend once shared.
“Don’t worry, in Russia there’s not much chance of living to old age,” I joked, and we burst out laughing...
And the other day he died while returning from a club in the capital: robbers attacked him in the passage and hit him on the head with something heavy. For the sake of the iPhone and laptop. He had 27 years left before retirement. The police, denying the “unsolved” crime, wrote in the report: “the traumatic brain injury was received from a person falling from his own height.” And those around them responded with the eternal: “It’s your own fault!”
If it is so dangerous at night, even in the very center of Moscow, and everyone knows about it, why are there no official statements from the police? Increased patrol? In the “cannibalistic” Union it was possible to walk at night without fear, in modern Russia- and it’s scary during the day.
Moscow is the Wild East, without a gun or a knife it is dangerous here. At the Komsomolskaya station, drugs and fake documents are sold almost in front of the police. In the capital, even during the day, you can get a “feather” in the side from a respectable citizen for parking in his place, or get a bullet in the forehead because of a scratch on your car. How many of these cases flashed in the news, and how many remained behind the scenes?
But they will say: “It’s your own fault!” They walked the wrong way, said the wrong thing, did the wrong thing. Or maybe they didn’t live there?
My husband and I spent a year and a half in a small town in Kaluga, more like a village. Men here have long been listed in the Red Book, and in the surrounding villages - even the kingdom of women. There is one man for ten houses, and every month there is a new death.
You can’t walk down the street without seeing a coffin lid leaning against a house, or mourning flowers scattered along the road, or a black widow’s scarf on a woman who just yesterday was walking arm-in-arm with her husband. And among the dead - men, men, men...
Cancer at thirty? Heart attack at forty? Those who live to be fifty in Russia should be given an order, because a pension for men is more unattainable than the kingdom of heaven.
Male mortality is reaching the proportions of a national disaster; the country has the largest gap in life expectancy between the “weaker” and “stronger” sexes, and even the residents of Zimbabwe and Somalia do not envy the health of our men. On television they scare people with Gulags and famines, depicting the horrors of Soviet totalitarianism, but those who have Gulags around have nothing to fear from Gulags.
In the USSR, people were cogs in the system, in modern Russia we are unnecessary parts.
The extreme life of a Russian person is a daily struggle for survival, maneuvering between “you can’t live like that” and “it’s impossible to live like that.” If metropolitan hospitals are offices for pumping money out of the population, then provincial ones are simply the shortest road to the next world. It happens that doctors here, on duty for three days in a row, operate without anesthesia and treat all diseases with brilliant green and a bandage - because there is nothing else. In small towns, maternity hospitals are closed, but morgues are functioning properly. What else does a dying country need?
It looks like we have found the “Russia that we lost”: this is the 21st century in Moscow, and beyond the Moscow Ring Road it is the 19th century. And the guilty people live there without guilt, who themselves work in the hospital for pennies, get sick themselves, and die like flies themselves. It's their own fault, period.
(According to the plans of the Ministry of Regional Development, in 2013 it is planned to commission 64 million square meters. meters of housing, in 2015 - 71 million square meters. meters, and in 2020 - 92 million square meters. meters.Alas, behind the cheerful reports on the introduced square meters A very unpleasant problem is often forgotten. The population decline is uneven across Russian regions. Moscow, for example, is not in danger of population decline. The problem here is the construction of housing and the creation of a wide urbanized zone around Moscow. But in most other regions of the country, housing will have to be demolished rather than built, and on a huge, increasing scale. What is housing liquidation? This is the elimination of infrastructure elements: water supply, electricity. Empty villages, towns and city districts cannot be supplied with electricity. Settlement becomes more dispersed, and maintaining infrastructure connections becomes more difficult. We cannot continue to build roads that connect emptying settlements. This is very costly and ineffective.
Hence the inevitable trend - voluntary and forced concentration of the population, the liquidation of unpromising towns and villages. All these are socially painful measures, but they are inevitable. After all, there are villages where multi-storey building one person or several families live. They need to be provided with heat, water supply, sewerage and other things. On the other hand, these crumbling houses cannot be left to house homeless people, drug addicts and rats. This is a very complex problem that is practically not discussed.
The 2010 population census discovered a lot of towns and cities, of which only their names remained! They are listed in cadastres, they exist on paper as administrative units. Many leaders at the district or even regional level command territories where there are no people.
The population of not only villages, which simply disappear from maps, but also small towns and villages has sharply decreased. Don't think that these are only areas Far East, - these are also areas located 200-300 kilometers from Moscow. Of course, in the area of attraction of large cities this is not a problem. But just go not far outside this zone and you will see what is happening there. Let's take, for example, the Tver region, which is historically torn between St. Petersburg and Moscow. Migration to these two megacities, combined with high mortality and low birth rates, leads to depopulation of the region.
If you look at Siberia, it will be very difficult to maintain the sparse “nuclear structure” inherent in the settlement system beyond the Urals. There were always not enough centers there - places of concentration of second-level functions, and the economic and administrative centers of the first level were mainly located along the Trans-Siberian Railway. And around them there is desert. In the future, problems there will only grow.
And a natural question arises: how to maintain the socio-economic and political integrity of a country with such a settlement system - with a hypertrophied metropolitan head, with a weakening body in the central European part and a too thin ridge beyond the Urals? There is no answer to this question yet.
Map of emptying Russia
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The demographic situation in Russia in 2016 demonstrates previous trends:
The Russian population of the country is rapidly dying out;
Natural population decline is typical for most regions of Russia;
Russia is compensating for the extinction of its own population through migration growth.
As a result of natural causes (fertility and mortality), the country's population decreased by 30 thousand people in the first six months, but due to the fact that 140 thousand migrants arrived in the country during this six months, Rosstat reported a population growth of 109.7 thousand people;
The systematic deterioration of the economic situation since 2013 was also reflected in the demographic component - the birth rate first slowed down, and in 2015 there was a drop in comparison with the previous year (Fig. 1). The readiness to have children in the context of the deteriorating economic situation in Russia is decreasing.
Rice. 1. Birth rate in Russia (according to Rosstat)
The long-awaited natural growth, which began in the country in 2013, has only one explanation - the population of the national outskirts began to grow so rapidly that its growth began to cover the natural decline of Russians. For example, in 2015, in the North Caucasus Federal District alone, the increase exceeded the Russian annual figure by 2.6 times (Fig. 2).
Rice. 2. Natural increase/loss by federal districts(according to Rosstat)
At the same time, regions with high concentration Russian population continues to show trends natural decline population at record rates.
In the first half of 2016, natural population growth was recorded in only 35 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, while the remaining 50 continue to die out. Let's see, as an example, how the number of regions has changed by 2015 since 2000 (Fig. 3).
Rice. 3. Change in population by 2015 since 2000 (according to Rosstat)
Only 24 entities have not reduced their numbers - these are the Caucasian republics and other national regions, capital cities and oil and gas entities. The population grew by more than 10% in only 9 regions, and decreased by more than 10% in 37. Chechnya and the Magadan region became the absolute leaders. The Chechen Republic increased its population by 91%, and Magadan lost almost 40% of its inhabitants.
The vector of international migration to last years. Every year the population of Russia increases due to migration growth by 230–300 thousand people, 96% of whom come from the CIS countries. If previously the main migration flow came from the republics of Central Asia, then with the tightening of legislation and the devaluation of the ruble, the number of migrants remaining in the country has decreased, while since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the number of Ukrainian citizens who come to Russia both for the purpose of earning money and in the hope of finding shelter (Fig. 4). However, the rigidity of Russian legislation and numerous obstacles for those entering from Ukraine turn this hope into bitter disappointment. But in any case, for them, the bad Russian peace is much better than war.
Rice. 4. Migration growth (according to Rosstat)
Since 2013, there has been a trend towards a reduction in marriages among the population, which is also largely due to the worsening economic situation. In the first half of 2016, the number of marriages decreased by 12% compared to the previous similar period, while the number of divorces increased by 2%.
The declared successes of the Russian state demographic policy in fact turn out to be a complete failure: instead of stimulating the birth rate, the authorities report population growth due to migrants, many of whom give rise to the problem of cultural assimilation and influence crime in the country. Reduction of the largest, state-forming and culture-forming Russian ethnic group is not on the state’s problematic agenda; moreover, the Russian issue, under the pretext of nationalism and fascism, has been politicized and is closed to public discussion. The state is aloof from the issues of demographic decline of the Orthodox population, which, apparently, has also lost its spiritual bonds family values, and economic grounds for starting a family. The Kremlin prefers not to notice all this, relying on illusory hopes of filling Russia at the expense of the inhabitants of neighboring states.
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